Scoring the first takedown is crucial, significantly enhancing a wrestler's chance of victory.
Taking this to the next level, we explored the probability of winning given the score at any point in the match by analyzing 500,000 high school matches with a detailed statistical model. Here’s what we discovered.
Key Findings
Four-Point Lead Is Decisive: a four-point lead at any time results in a win 93% of the time.:
Period Timing Is Irrelevant: The lead's timing does not significantly alter the win chances. Whether you’re up by one point in the first or third period, the chances of winning are roughly equal.
Scoring Differential Matters: It's the difference in scores, not the absolute scores, that determines the win probability. A 1-0 match and 12-11 match have the same win probability.
College is Slightly Higher: at all scoring differentials, the victory probability is slightly higher for college matches.
Click or tap chart to enlarge.
The model is 86% accurate and while that’s commendable as statistical models go it isn’t perfect. Sometimes outcomes are unpredictable! Wrestling would be boring otherwise.
Change Tech Falls?
At a scoring difference of 10 points, the model calculates a win probability of 99.9%. At 12 points or more, this large sample has no instance of the prevailing wrestler losing; that is, in every single instance where a wrestler is winning by 12 points or more, the wrestler with the lead won the match.
With this in mind, we thought about the current rule in which a technical fall is earned with a 15 point or more scoring advantage. Might make sense to ratchet that down to 12 or even a 10 point advantage to reflect that realities of competition.
While wrestling currently trails other sports in analytics, we are excited to make a meaningful contribution. Our ongoing efforts in this area aim to improve our products, educate the wrestling community, and elevate the sport's analytics profile.
We will use this model in our products to improve the presentation of match results in Takedown LIVE and, perhaps, X (formerly Twitter). Stay tuned for those enhancements later this year.