In our sample of ~2,800 varsity high school wrestling matches, only 38% ended in a decision. Of these matches that went the distance, the winning margin was as follows:
In this sample, only 13% of all matches were winnable (or "tie-able") with a non-exposure move -- takedown, escape or reverse -- at the whistle. Over a twenty year span, NFL games were won by a field goal or less 24% of the time. Also, in this sample, 24% of all matches were winnable with a non-exposure + near fall move at the buzzer. Again, over a twenty year span, NFL games were won by a touchdown or less 46% of the time.
Is the NFL twice as competitive (=interesting to watch) as a high school wrestling match? Maybe. It's pretty easy to shoot holes in this presentation. Perhaps a better analysis would be a comparison of dual meet scores and NFL scores. Or, dual meet scores and high school football scores. Yet, the NFL is a successful product and we want wrestling to be likewise.
One last thing: technical falls comprised only 2.5% of all match outcomes in this sample. Achieving a tech fall, according to this data, is very, very difficult -- 1 in 40 matches! However, pins make up about 49% of all outcomes. Personally, I love the action associated with a wrestler pursuing a tech fall. But, for me, it's too rare. Seems like we could cut the tech fall point differential threshold or perhaps, as some have suggested, allow for a pointless escape after gaining control.
What do you think?