To gauge the relevance of short-time scoring as a predictor of victory, we gathered data from 7,355 matches wrestled by 181 athletes at 13 high schools, all users of Takedown Scoring and Stats.
We filtered the data as follows:
Included varsity competition only
Included wrestlers with greater than 20 periods of short-time scoring data
Excluded exhibitions and forfeits from win-loss record
From this sample, we found the following:
With a negative Short-Time Scoring Average Point Advantage the probability of having a winning season is 41%.
With a zero or positive Average Point Advantage the probability of having a winning season is 82%.
This chart shows win percentage as a function of Average Point Advantage for this sample (each dot is a wrestler):
And, while the relevance of short-time scoring is hard to deny, we wondered if improved short-time scoring performance — a positive and increasing Average Point Advantage — is simply a matter of experience. That is, does advantage increase as a function of cumulative match experience?
Surprisingly, in this sample, the answer is no. There’s no meaningful correlation between experience (measured in matches) and short-time scoring performance.
So, we know (at least in this sample) that short-time scoring proficiency can increase one’s chances of having a winning season. It also appears that short-time scoring performance doesn’t naturally improve with experience. Maybe scoring in short-time is a skill (or perhaps a mindset) requiring focus and practice.
Something to think about for coaches wanting to help wrestlers get to the next level.
If you’re interested in tracking short-time scoring performance, check out Takedown Scoring and Stats.