Scoring the first takedown is crucial, significantly enhancing a wrestler's chance of victory.
Taking this to the next level, we explored the probability of winning given the score at any point in the match by analyzing 500,000 high school matches with a detailed statistical model. Here’s what we discovered.
Key Findings
Scoring Differential Matters: It's the difference in scores, not the absolute scores, that determines the win probability. A 1-0 match and 12-11 match have the same win probability for each wrestler.
Period Timing Is Irrelevant: The lead's timing does not significantly alter the win chances. Whether you’re up by one point in the first or third period, the chances of winning are roughly equal.
Four-Point Lead Is Decisive: a four-point lead at any time results in a win 93% of the time.:
College is Slightly Higher: at all scoring differentials, the victory probability is slightly higher for college matches.
The model is 86% accurate and while that’s commendable as statistical models go it isn’t perfect. Sometimes outcomes are unpredictable! Wrestling would be boring otherwise.
We will use this model in our products to improve the presentation of match results in Takedown LIVE and, perhaps, X (formerly Twitter). Stay tuned for those enhancements later this year.
While wrestling currently trails other sports in analytics, we are excited to make a meaningful contribution. Our ongoing efforts in this area aim to add value for our users, enlighten the wrestling community, and elevate the sport's analytics profile.
Note: if you’re interested in the model specifics, send an email to support@levelchanger.com with your question(s).
Shoutout to D. Griffin for machine learning assistance.